Space Traffic Jam: Starlink Satellites Dodged 300,000 Collisions in 2025

Starlink's Record-Breaking Year of Near Misses

SpaceX has revealed that its Starlink satellites executed approximately 300,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers during 2025, marking a 50 percent increase from the roughly 200,000 maneuvers recorded the previous year. The disclosure came in a report submitted to the US Federal Communications Commission on December 31st.

Chinese Satellites Identified as Primary Concern

The report singles out Chinese satellites as a major source of collision risk. Seven of the top 20 space objects triggering Starlink orbit adjustments originated from China, accounting for over 3,700 emergency maneuvers. The Shanghai-based company Lanjian Hongqing Technology's Honghu-2 satellite was flagged as the most frequent problem, with over 1,000 close approaches.

Tensions escalated dramatically on December 9th when a newly launched Chinese satellite passed within just 200 metres of Starlink-6079 at an altitude of 560 kilometres. Michael Nicolls, vice president of Starlink engineering, said the Chinese operators performed no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites.

Unsustainable Trajectory

With Starlink now operating over 9,400 satellites, representing approximately 65 percent of all operational spacecraft in orbit, experts are raising alarms. Hugh Lewis, a professor at the University of Southampton, described the figures as an enormous number of maneuvers and projected that SpaceX is on course to reach one million annual maneuvers by 2027.

SpaceX operates at a significantly stricter collision-avoidance threshold than industry standards, initiating maneuvers when the risk reaches three in 10 million compared to the typical one in 10,000.

Future Competition Will Intensify Congestion

The orbital congestion is expected to worsen considerably. China's state-led Guowang project aims to deploy 13,000 satellites, while the Shanghai-led Qianfan project targets more than 15,000 by 2030. Documents submitted to the International Telecommunication Union indicate Chinese plans to eventually launch more than 200,000 internet satellites.

In response to the growing crisis, SpaceX has announced plans to lower approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites from 550 kilometres to 480 kilometres in 2026, reducing the time it takes for failed satellites to deorbit by more than 80 percent.